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Generalized entropy and model uncertainty

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  • Meyer-Gohde, Alexander

Abstract

I provide a model uncertainty foundation to the power certainty equivalent of Epstein-Zin-Weil risk sensitive preferences (EZ), enabling the analysis of these preferences using detection probabilities (DEPs) and worst case models. This completes the connection between these preferences and the model uncertainty of Hansen and Sargent (2007) (HS) that was previously limited to the special case of unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution. The connection between EZ and HS rests on a powerlike extension of entropy and its associated statistics from Tsallis (1988) and I show that the same additional margin of pessimism that implies this connection can close the gap to the empirical Sharpe ratio in a more general specification. For the specific cases of EZ and HS preferences, I find that calibrations that match detection error probabilities yield comparable asset pricing implications across models. Surprisingly, I find that the low levels of risk aversion with EZ preferences that match asset pricing facts are associated with a high level of model uncertainty in the long run risk environment of Bansal and Yaron (2004).

Suggested Citation

  • Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2019. "Generalized entropy and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 312-343.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:183:y:2019:i:c:p:312-343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.06.004
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    2. Ma, Hanmin & Tian, Dejian, 2021. "Generalized entropic risk measures and related BSDEs," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Dejian Tian, 2022. "Pricing principle via Tsallis relative entropy in incomplete market," Papers 2201.05316, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model uncertainty; Robust control; Recursive preferences; Equity premium puzzle; Tsallis entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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