Ambiguous Business Cycles
AbstractThis paper considers business cycle models with agents who are averse not only to risk, but also to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of confidence in probability assessments. While modeling changes in risk typically calls for higher order approximations, changes in ambiguity in our models work like changes in conditional means. Our models thus allow for uncertainty shocks but can still be solved and estimated using simple 1st order approximations. In an otherwise standard business cycle model, an increase in ambiguity (that is, a loss of confidence in probability assessments), acts like an 'unrealized' negative news shock: it generates a large recession accompanied by ex-post positive excess returns. Based on an estimated model on US data, we find that ambiguity shocks have the potential to be a major driving source of business cycle fluctuations. The welfare cost of business cycles is then substantially larger than that implied by standard risk-based calculations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 612.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2013.
"Fluctuations in Uncertainty,"
CEP Occasional Papers
038, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011.
"Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation,"
NBER Working Papers
17111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-037, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Working Papers 2011-005, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," 2011 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," CQER Working Paper 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," Working Papers 13-46, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Erzo G.J. Luttmer, 2013. "The Stolper-Samuelson effects of a decline in aggregate consumption," Working Papers 703, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013.
"Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time,"
- Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1740-1786.
- Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2012. "Ambiguous Volatility and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-29, CIRANO.
- Luciano I. de Castro & Marialaura Pesce & Nicholas C. Yannelis, 2013. "A New Perspective on Rational Expectations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1316, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2012. "Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons," Working Papers 2012-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012.
"Robust animal spirits,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.