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Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer

    (UCLA)

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching costs in the labor market lead to the existence of a continuum of equilibria and I resolve the resulting indeterminacy by assuming that the beliefs of stock market participants are self-fulfilling. The paper reconciles Keynesian economics with general equilibrium theory without invoking the assumption of frictions that prevent wages and prices from reaching their equilibrium levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 603.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:603

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  1. Roger Farmer & Dmitry Plotnikov, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," 2012 Meeting Papers 73, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Bruce Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1989. "Pareto Inefficiency of Market Economies: Search and Efficiency Wage Models," NBER Working Papers 2651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2007. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," IEW - Working Papers 351, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  4. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  5. Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "On the Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 279-98, April.
  6. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2008. "Aggregate demand and supply," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 77-93.
  7. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February.
  9. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
  10. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October.
  11. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901.
  13. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  14. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1987. "Costly Search and Recruiting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-107, February.
  15. Farmer, Roger E A, 2005. "Shooting the Auctioneer," CEPR Discussion Papers 4825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Stochastic Dynamics and Matching in the Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale for the Shimer's Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2010/95, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Vulgarni Keynezianizam (4. dio)
    by cronomy in Cronomy on 2012-11-16 07:42:45
  2. Krugman to Farmer: "Show Me Your Trailer, or I Won't Watch Your Movie"
    by Stephen Williamson in Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics on 2013-08-18 21:51:00
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Cited by:
  1. Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario, 2013. "Testing for multiple bubbles with daily data," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 011028, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.
  2. Guerrazzi Marco, 2012. "Expectations, Employment and Prices: A Suggested Interpretation of the New «Farmerian» Economics," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 369.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," Working Papers 092013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. van Suntum, Ulrich, 2009. "Economic confidence, negative interest rates, and liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," CAWM Discussion Papers 24, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
  5. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "How to Reduce Unemployment: Notes on Macro-Economic Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2010/106, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Farmer, Roger E A, 2011. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 8617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
  8. Ulrich van Suntum, . "Economic Confidence, Negative Interest Rates, and Liquidity: Towards Keynesianism 2.0," Working Papers 200108, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
  9. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 4785, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Faruque, Muhammad U, 2011. "An empirical investigation of the arbitrage pricing theory in a frontier stock market: evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Fornari, Fabio & Stracca, Livio, 2013. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence," Working Paper Series 1522, European Central Bank.
  12. Masanori Kashiwagi, . "Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs in the U.S. Housing Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2010. "How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 557-572, July.

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