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Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

Abstract

This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary version of Farmer’s (2009) model in which there are multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It differs from the new-Keynesian model by replacing the Phillips curve with a belief function to determine expectations of nominal income growth. I estimate both models using U.S. data and I show that the Farmer monetary model fits the data better than its new-Keynesian competitor.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16522.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Publication status: published as “Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function”, Chapter 7, in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics , Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps eds, Princet on University Press, 2013
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16522

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  1. Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284 Elsevier.
  2. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2003. "Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0275, European Central Bank.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
  4. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, December.
  5. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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