Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations: The new `Farmerian' framework under scrutiny

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gelain, Paolo
  • Guerrazzi, Marco

Abstract

In this paper, we implement Bayesian econometric techniques to analyze a theoretical framework built along the lines of Farmer's micro-foundation of the General Theory. Specifically, we test the ability of a demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations to match the behaviour of the US economy over the last thirty years. The main findings of our empirical investigation are the following. First, all over the period, our model fits data very well. Second, demand shocks are the most relevant in explaining the variability of concerned variables. In addition, our estimates reveal that a large negative demand shock caused the Great Recession via a sudden drop of confidence. Overall, those results are consistent with the main features of the New 'Farmerian' Economics as well as to latest demand-side explanations of the finance-induced recession.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55773/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55773.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 06 May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55773

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: New Farmerian Economics; Competitive search; Dynamic models; Bayesian estimation.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 329-360 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2014. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," CAMA Working Papers 2014-57, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," 2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 460, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  6. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Working Papers 341, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
  8. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
  9. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "Stochastic Dynamics and Matching in the Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale for the Shimer's Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2010/95, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  10. John M. Barron & Mark C. Berger & Dan A. Black, 1997. "On-the-Job Training," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number ojt.
  11. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers, Banque de France 162, Banque de France.
  12. Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 6275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert Shimer, 2004. "The Consequences of Rigid Wages in Search Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 469-479, 04/05.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
  16. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  17. Marco Guerrazzi, 2012. "The ‘Farmerian’ Approach to Ending a Finance-Induced Recession: Notes on Stability and Dynamics," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 41(1-2), pages 81-99, 02.
  18. Richard Grabowski & Michael P. Shields, 2000. "A Dynamic, Keynesian Model of Development," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-15, June.
  19. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  20. Paolo Gelain & Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "A DSGE Model from the Old Keynesian Economics: An Empirical Investigation," CDMA Working Paper Series, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis 201014, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  21. Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The HUMP-Shaped Behavior of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 707-27.
  22. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  23. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. A demand-driven search model with self-fulfilling expectations: The new ‘Farmerian’ framework under scrutiny
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-05-16 18:26:09
  2. Animal Spirits: an Empirical Test
    by Roger Farmer in My Economic Window on 2014-05-19 23:08:00

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.