Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
Abstract
This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in an old-Keynesian model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It differs from the new-Keynesian model by replacing the Phillips curve with a belief function to determine expectations of nominal income growth. I estimate the new and old-Keynesian models using U.S. data and I show that the old-Keynesian model fits the data better than its new-Keynesian competitor.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8100.Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8100
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Related research
Keywords: animal spirits; inflation; unemployment;Other versions of this item:
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003.
"Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4106, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andreas Beyer & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2003. "Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks," Working Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2010.
"Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting,"
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15826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284 Elsevier.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
- John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, November.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu & Straub, Roland, 2011.
"Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roland Straub & Florin O. Bilbiie, 2012. "Asset market participation, monetary policy rules and the great inflation," Working Paper Series 1438, European Central Bank.
- Florin Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2006. "Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy Rules, and the Great Inflation," IMF Working Papers 06/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012.
"Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 155-172, 03.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 2009. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," NBER Working Papers 14846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 2011. "Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits," 2011 Meeting Papers 603, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Marco Guerrazzi, 2011.
"Expectations, Employment and Prices: A Suggested Interpretation of the New ‘Farmerian’ Economics,"
Discussion Papers
2011/116, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DSE), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
- Guerrazzi, Marco, 2010. "Expectations, employment and prices: a suggested interpretation of the new 'farmerian' economics," MPRA Paper 30832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG & Lifang Xu, 2012. "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
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