Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
AbstractThis paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in an old-Keynesian model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It differs from the new-Keynesian model by replacing the Phillips curve with a belief function to determine expectations of nominal income growth. I estimate the new and old-Keynesian models using U.S. data and I show that the old-Keynesian model fits the data better than its new-Keynesian competitor.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8100.
Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Other versions of this item:
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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