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Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model

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  • Roger Farmer

Abstract

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to beliefs about the future price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though there is no fundamental uncertainty and financial markets are sequentially complete. I show that the model can explain a substantial risk premium while generating smooth time series for consumption. In my model, asset price fluctuations are Pareto inefficient and there is a role for treasury or central bank intervention to stabilize asset price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," NBER Working Papers 24261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24261
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2023. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(4), pages 947-993.
    2. Roger E.A. Farmer & Giovanni Nicolò, 2021. "Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Platonov, Konstantin, 2019. "Animal spirits in a monetary model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 60-77.
    4. Nicolae B. Gârleanu & Stavros Panageas, 2020. "Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: A Different Approach," NBER Working Papers 26607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Roger Farmer & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality," NBER Working Papers 28261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Farmer, Roger, 2019. "The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 13745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gârleanu, Nicolae & Panageas, Stavros, 2021. "What to expect when everyone is expecting: Self-fulfilling expectations and asset-pricing puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 54-73.
    8. Dragone, Davide & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Negligible senescence: An economic life cycle model for the future," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 264-285.
    9. Stavros Panageas, 2020. "The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 26974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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