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How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal

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  • Farmer, Roger E.A.

Abstract

This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisis? (2) Is there an alternative to fiscal policy that is less costly and more effective? The answer to both questions is yes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (July)
Pages: 557-572

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:5:p:557-572

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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References

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  1. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2009. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," NBER Working Papers 14846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment Fluctuations With Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," NBER Working Papers 12498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
  6. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  8. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 11183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  10. Roger E. A. Farmer & Andrew Hollenhorst, 2006. "Shooting the Auctioneer," NBER Working Papers 12584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
  12. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2007. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000135, UCLA Department of Economics.
  13. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M., 2011. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 211-227, February.
  14. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
  15. P. A. Diamond, 1982. "Money in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 297, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  16. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1987. "Costly Search and Recruiting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-107, February.
  17. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1713-1764, December.
  19. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1984. "Search Intensity, Job Advertising, and Efficiency," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 128-43, January.
  20. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
  21. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  23. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  24. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2008. "Aggregate demand and supply," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 77-93.
  25. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October.
  26. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901.
  27. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 217-27, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG & Lifang Xu, 2012. "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
  3. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, 09.
  4. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
  5. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2011. "Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits," 2011 Meeting Papers 603, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Expectations, Employment and Prices: A Suggested Interpretation of the New ‘Farmerian’ Economics," Discussion Papers 2011/116, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  7. Viktar Fedaseyeu & Vitaliy Strohush, 2012. "Loans from the Government, Overinvestment by Households, and Asset Bubbles," Working Papers 443, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Leigh, Daniel, 2014. "To starve or not to starve the beast?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 1-23.
  9. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "How to Reduce Unemployment: Notes on Macro-Economic Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2010/106, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  10. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.

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