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How to reduce unemployment: A new policy proposal

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  • Farmer, Roger E.A.

Abstract

This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisis? (2) Is there an alternative to fiscal policy that is less costly and more effective? The answer to both questions is yes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (July)
Pages: 557-572

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:57:y:2010:i:5:p:557-572

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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References

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  1. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Aggregate Demand and Supply," NBER Working Papers 13406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  5. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 217-27, April.
  6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert E. Hall & Paul R. Milgrom, 2005. "The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain," NBER Working Papers 11245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Working Papers 341, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  12. Farmer, Roger E A, 2005. "Shooting the Auctioneer," CEPR Discussion Papers 4825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  14. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  15. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups," NBER Working Papers 14584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuations with staggered Nash wage bargaining," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 397-407, August.
  18. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. Farmer, Roger, 2010. "Expectations, Employment and Prices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397901, October.
  20. Diamond, Peter A, 1984. "Money in Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, January.
  21. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1984. "Search Intensity, Job Advertising, and Efficiency," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 128-43, January.
  22. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," 2005 Meeting Papers 460, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  24. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2011. "Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits," 2011 Meeting Papers 603, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  26. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  27. Benassy Jean-pascal, 1974. "Neokeynesian disequilibrium theory in a monetary economy," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 7402, CEPREMAP.
  28. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1987. "Costly Search and Recruiting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 89-107, February.
  29. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pengfei Wang & Lifang Xu & Jianjun Miao, 2013. "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment," 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 720, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Viktar Fedaseyeu & Vitaliy Strohush, 2012. "Loans from the Government, Overinvestment by Households, and Asset Bubbles," Working Papers 443, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Leigh, Daniel, 2014. "To starve or not to starve the beast?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 1-23.
  4. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Search And Stochastic Dynamics In The Old Keynesian Economics: A Rationale For The Shimer Puzzle," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 561-586, November.
  5. Marco Guerrazzi, 2011. "Expectations, Employment and Prices: A Suggested Interpretation of the New ‘Farmerian’ Economics," Discussion Papers 2011/116, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2011. "Confidence Crashes and Animal Spirits," 2011 Meeting Papers 603, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Marco Guerrazzi, 2010. "How to Reduce Unemployment: Notes on Macro-Economic Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 2010/106, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  8. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2011. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hebous, Shafik, 2009. "The Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," MPRA Paper 23300, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
  10. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.

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