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Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves

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Author Info
Isaac Kleshchelski
Nicolas Vincent () (IEA, HEC Montréal)
Abstract

This paper studies the quantitative implications of the interaction between robust control and stochastic volatility for key asset pricing phenomena. We present an equilibrium term structure model with a representative agent and an output growth process that is conditionally heteroskedastic. The agent does not know the true model of the economy and chooses optimal policies that are robust to model misspecification. The choice of robust policies greatly amplifies the effect of conditional heteroskedasticity in consumption growth, improving the model’s ability to explain asset prices. In a robust control framework, stochastic volatility in consumption growth generates both a state-dependent market price of model uncertainty and a stochastic market price of risk. We estimate the model using data from the bond and equity markets, as well as consumption data. We show that the model is consistent with key empirical regularities that characterize the bond and equity markets. We also characterize empirically the set of models the robust representative agent entertains, and show that this set is ?small?. That is, it is statistically difficult to distinguish between models in this set.

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Paper provided by HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 08-02.

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Length: 67 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0802

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Related research
Keywords: Yield curves; Market price of Uncertainty; Robust control.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hisashi Nakamura & Keita Nakayama & Akihiko Takahashi, 2008. "Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Recursive Preferences in Continuous Time," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 273-305, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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