Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nengjiu Ju
  • Jianjun Miao

Abstract

We propose a novel generalized recursive smooth ambiguity model which permits a three-way separation among risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and intertemporal substitution. We apply this utility model to a consumption-based asset pricing model in which consumption and dividends follow hidden Markov regime-switching processes. Our calibrated model can match the mean equity premium, the mean risk-free rate, and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price-dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, the leverage e?ect, and the mean reversion of excess returns. The key intuition is that an ambiguity averse agent behaves pessimistically by attaching more weight to the pricing kernel in bad times when his continuation values are low.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://down.aefweb.net/WorkingPapers/w438.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics in its series CEMA Working Papers with number 438.

as in new window
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Econometrica.
Handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:438

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://cema.cufe.edu.cn/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Ambiguity aversion; learning; asset pricing puzzles; model uncertainty; robustness; pessimism; regime switching;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  3. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
  5. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
  6. Raman Uppal & Lorenzo Garlappi & Tan Wang, 2004. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Markus Leippold & Fabio Trojani & Paolo Vanini, 2008. "Learning and Asset Prices Under Ambiguous Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2565-2597, November.
  8. Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2009. "Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 930-976, May.
  9. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
  11. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
  13. Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-91, June.
  14. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2011. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11032r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Aug 2012.
  15. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005.
  16. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  17. Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, . "Model Uncertainty and Liquidity," GSIA Working Papers, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business 2001-E17, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  18. Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Nan Li, 2005. "Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 11476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  20. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 68-123, 03.
  21. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  22. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?," NBER Working Papers 6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
  25. Epstein, Larry G, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608, July.
  26. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 559-591, 03.
  27. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
  28. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
  29. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, . "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-015, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  30. Tomasz Strzalecki, . "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Recursive Models of Ambiguity Aversion," Working Paper 8240, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  31. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  32. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  33. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
  34. Yoram Halevy, 2007. "Ellsberg Revisited: An Experimental Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 503-536, 03.
  35. Dothan, Michael U & Feldman, David, 1986. " Equilibrium Interest Rates and Multiperiod Bonds in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 369-82, June.
  36. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,28, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  37. Uzi Segal, 1985. "The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach," UCLA Economics Working Papers 362, UCLA Department of Economics.
  38. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  39. Jianjun Miao, 2009. "Ambiguity, Risk and Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 257-279, November.
  40. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2002. "A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research 11-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Apr 2003.
  41. Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
  42. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
  43. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  44. Brandt, M.W.Michael W. & Zeng, Qi & Zhang, Lu, 2004. "Equilibrium stock return dynamics under alternative rules of learning about hidden states," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1925-1954, September.
  45. Jianjun Miao & Takashi Hayashi, 2010. "Intertemporal substitution and recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  46. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  47. Epstein, Larry G. & Miao, Jianjun, 2003. "A two-person dynamic equilibrium under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1253-1288, May.
  48. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Fragile beliefs and the price of uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 129-162, 07.
  49. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1599-1623, December.
  50. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
  51. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," Working Papers, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics 04-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  52. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  53. Ergin, Haluk & Gul, Faruk, 2009. "A theory of subjective compound lotteries," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 899-929, May.
  54. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  55. Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2002. "Model Misspecification and Under-Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 3304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  57. H. Henry Cao & Tan Wang & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "Model Uncertainty, Limited Market Participation, and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1219-1251.
  58. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 462, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  59. Robert F. Nau, 2006. "Uncertainty Aversion with Second-Order Utilities and Probabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 136-145, January.
  60. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
  61. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  62. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
  63. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation," NBER Working Papers 14772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  65. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  66. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 361, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  67. Pascal J. Maenhout, 2004. "Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 951-983.
  68. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  69. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  70. David, Alexander, 1997. "Fluctuating Confidence in Stock Markets: Implications for Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 427-462, December.
  71. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
  72. Barillas, Francisco & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2009. "Doubts or variability?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2388-2418, November.
  73. Duffie, Darrell & Skiadas, Costis, 1994. "Continuous-time security pricing : A utility gradient approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 107-131, March.
  74. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Gao).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.