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Ambiguous Business Cycles

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  • Cosmin Ilut
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

This paper considers business cycle models with agents who dislike both risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of con fidence in probability assessments. While modeling changes in risk typically requires higher-order approximations, changes in ambiguity in our models work like changes in conditional means. Our models thus allow for uncertainty shocks but can still be solved and estimated using first-order approximations. In our estimated medium-scale DSGE model, a loss of confi dence about productivity works like `unrealized' bad news. Time-varying con fidence emerges as a major source of business cycle fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 12-06.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:12-06

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Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/

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  1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2009. "Investment shocks and the relative price of investment," Staff Reports 411, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Working Papers 12-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan Francisco, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  11. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
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  1. Ambiguous Business Cycles
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2012-06-09 20:57:11
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Cited by:
  1. Hikaru Saijo, 2013. "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 017, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations In Uncertainty," Working Papers 14-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  3. Luciano I. de Castro & Marialaura Pesce & Nicholas C. Yannelis, 2013. "A New Perspective on Rational Expectations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1316, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," CQER Working Paper 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time," Papers 1301.4614, arXiv.org.
  6. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
  7. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  9. Lars Peter Hansen, 2012. "Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons," Working Papers 2012-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  10. Lars Hansen & Jaroslav Borovicka, 2013. "Robust preference expansions," 2013 Meeting Papers 1199, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Erzo G.J. Luttmer, 2013. "The Stolper-Samuelson effects of a decline in aggregate consumption," Working Papers 703, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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