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Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

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  • Huixin Bi
  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Campbell Leith

Abstract

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilizing government debt. We argue that the conditions that could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the current economic environment.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/wp2013-26.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-26.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-26

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Keywords: Economic models; Fiscal Policy; Uncertainty and monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
  2. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-10, May.
  3. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Michael Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2008. "Political Economy of Mechanisms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(3), pages 619-641, 05.
  5. Lambertini, Luisa & Tavares, Jose, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  6. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
  7. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1991. "Equilibrium in a Production Economy with an Income Tax," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1091-1104, July.
  8. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. " Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 911-29, December.
  9. Den Haan, Wouter, 2008. "Comparison of Solutions to the Incomplete Markets Model with Aggregate Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Nora Traum & Shu-Chun Yang, 2010. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Caepr Working Papers 2010-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity," Working Papers 11-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Benjamin Keen & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "What is a realistic value for price adjustment costs in New Keynesian models?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 789-793.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2011. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse06_2011, University of Bonn, Germany.
  15. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  16. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
  17. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
  18. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 4810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," Scholarly Articles 4553027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2012. "Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-594, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal Action in an Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Independence: An Application to Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4199, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Christos Shiamptanis, 2014. "Risk Assessment Under A Nonlinear Fiscal Policy Rule," LCERPA Working Papers lm0063, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Jun 2014.
  4. Bernardi, L., 2012. "Heterogeneity of taxation in EA Member countries and some implications for EA fiscal governance," MPRA Paper 40050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Johannsen, Benjamin K., 2014. "When are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Large?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Fiscal Limits with No-Default," Working Papers WP2012/6, University of Haifa, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2013.
  7. Bertrand Gruss & Jose L. Torres, 2012. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 12/38, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Anna Sokolova, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy: Default vs. Inflation," HSE Working papers WP BRP 39/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  9. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Sokolova, A., 2014. "Sovereign Risk and Monetary Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 56-82.
  11. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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