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International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty

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  • Pierpaolo Benigno
  • Salvatore Nisticò

Abstract

This paper proposes an explanation of the international home bias in equity based on ambiguity aversion. Doubts imply an additional hedging motif driven by the interaction between real exchange rate risk and ambiguity aversion. What matters is the long-run as opposed to the short-run risk. Domestic equity is a good hedge with respect to long-run real exchange rate risk even when bonds are traded. The higher is the degree of ambiguity aversion, the stronger is the home bias. We identify the degree of ambiguity aversion with detection error probabilities and show that our framework is able to explain a large share of the observed US home bias, as well as other stylized facts on US cross-border asset holdings. Without doubts, a standard open-economy macroeconomic model would be unsuccessful along all these dimensions. An older version of this paper is available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w14734.rev0.pdf to NBER subscribers and those in domains eligible for free downloads. Individual purchasers of papers are directed to email orders@nber.org or to call 617 588-1405 to purchase the older version.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14734.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Publication status: published as Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nistico, 2012. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 144-89, January.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14734

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  1. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2011. "Country Portfolios In Open Economy Macro‐Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 337-369, 04.
  4. Giannis Vardas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2004. "Uncertainty Aversion and Robust Portfolio Choices," Working Papers 0408, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  5. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano Croce, 2005. "Risks For The Long Run And The Real Exchange Rate," 2005 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Working Papers 10597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g821o6lsg is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Robust estimation and control under commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 258-301, October.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1993. "Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 4396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, 01.
  11. Tomasz Strzalecki, 2013. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Recursive Models of Ambiguity Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1039-1074, 05.
  12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708n2m4m is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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