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Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

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Author Info
Kai Leitemo
Ulf Söderstrom

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Abstract

This paper studies how a central bank’s preference for robustness against model misspecification affects the design of monetary policy in a New-Keynesian model of a small open economy. Due to the simple model structure, we are able to solve analytically for the optimal robust policy rule, and we separately analyze the effects of robustness against misspecification concerning the determination of inflation, output and the exchange rate. We show that an increased central bank preference for robustness makes monetary policy respond more aggressively or more cautiously to shocks, depending on the type of shock and the source of misspecification.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 290.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:290

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Solution of Macromodels with Hansen-Sargent Robust Policies: Some Extensions," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 499, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 4805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  16. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2003. "Modeling Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 9566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103. [Downloadable!]
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002. " Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 104(1), pages 125-45. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, . "Methods for Robust Control," Working Papers 307, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Araújo, Eurilton, 2008. "Robust Monetary Policy with the Consumption-Wealth Channel," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_108, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dennis, Richard & Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2007. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, . "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 273, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2006. "Robust Control and Monetary Policy Delegation," Working Papers of BETA 2006-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Li Qin & Elefterios Spyromitros & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 2006. "Does Model Uncertainty Lead to Less Central Bank Transparency?," Working Papers of BETA 2006-22, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard Dennis, 2007. "Model uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Robustness in monetary policymaking: a case for the Friedman rule," Research Discussion Papers 4/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michel Juillard & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy," Working Papers 07-32, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Puhakka , Mikko, 2005. "The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy," Research Discussion Papers 26/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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