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Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness

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  • Richard Dennis
  • Kai Leitemo
  • Ulf Soderstrom

Abstract

We use robust control techniques to study the effects of model uncertainty on monetary policy in an estimated, semi-structural, small-open-economy model of the U.K. Compared to the closed economy, the presence of an exchange rate channel for monetary policy not only produces new trade-offs for monetary policy, but it also introduces an additional source of specification errors. We find that exchange rate shocks are an important contributor to volatility in the model, and that the exchange rate equation is particularly vulnerable to model misspecification, along with the equation for domestic inflation. However, when policy is set with discretion, the cost of insuring against model misspecification appears reasonably small.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 316.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:316

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  1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Richard Dennis & Ulf Soderstrom, 2002. "How important is precommitment for monetary policy?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dennis, Richard, 2010. "How robustness can lower the cost of discretion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 653-667, September.
  2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luigi Paciello, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Doubts and Asset Prices," EIEF Working Papers Series 1024, Einaudi Institute for Economic and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2010.
  3. Richard Dennis, 2007. "Model uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2007-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Leitemo , Kai & Söderström , Ulf, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland.
  5. Milani, Fabio, 2011. "The impact of foreign stock markets on macroeconomic dynamics in open economies: A structural estimation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-129, February.
  6. Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," Research Working Paper RWP 10-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Ellison, Martin & Sargent, Thomas J, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers 7510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  9. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2011. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp446, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  10. repec:pra:mprapa:5114 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2012. "Taylor rules, fear of floating and the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy: a case of observational equivalence," Discussion Paper Series 2012_07, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2012.

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