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Methods for robust control

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  • Dennis, Richard
  • Leitemo, Kai
  • Söderström, Ulf

Abstract

Robust control allows policymakers to formulate policies that guard against model misspecification. The principal tools used to solve robust control problems are state-space methods [see Hansen, L.P., Sargent T.J., 2008. Robustness. Princeton University Press; Giordani, P., Söderlind, P., 2004. Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28 (12), 2367-2397]. In this paper we show that the structural-form methods developed by Dennis [2007. Optimal policy rules in rational-expectations models: new solution algorithms. Macroeconomic Dynamics 11 (1), 31-55] to solve control problems with rational expectations can also be applied to robust control problems, with the advantage that they bypass the task, often onerous, of having to express the reference model in state-space form. In addition, we show how to implement two different timing assumptions with distinct implications for the robust policy and the economy. We apply our methods to a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model and find that robustness has important effects on policy and the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1604-1616

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:8:p:1604-1616

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Keywords: Robust control Misspecification Optimal policy;

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  1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
  2. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Robust control with commitment: a modification to Hansen-Sargent," Working Paper Series 2005-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  5. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
  9. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 68-123, 03.
  10. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 4805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Glenn Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0065, Econometric Society.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  13. Willem H. Buiter & Richard C. Marston, 1985. "International Economic Policy Coordination," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number buit85-1, January.
  14. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 1993. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521441964, 9.
  15. Dennis, Richard, 2007. "Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 31-55, February.
  16. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  17. ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP -516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June.
  19. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J. & Wang, Neng E., 2002. "Robust Permanent Income And Pricing With Filtering," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 40-84, February.
  21. Anderson, Evan W. & McGrattan, Ellen R. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-252 Elsevier.
  22. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.
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  24. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:40-84 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination In Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
  28. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1985. "Optimal feedback rules in an open economy macromodel with rational expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 141-163, March.
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