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Robust monetary rules under unstructured model uncertainty

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  • Levine, Paul
  • Pearlman, Joseph

Abstract

This paper revisits a widely adopted approach to robust decision making developed by (Hansen and Sargent, 2003) and (Hansen and Sargent, 2008)--henceforth HS--and applies it to monetary policy design in the face of model uncertainty. We pay particular attention to two issues: first, we distinguish three possible forms of the implied game between malign nature and the policymaker in the HS procedure each leading to a different robust and approximating equilibria. Second, we impose the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. We show that the ZLB constraint has serious consequences for a policymaker pursuing HS-type robustness, especially when accompanied by an inability to commit.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 456-471

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:456-471

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Robustness Unstructured uncertainty Commitment Zero lower bound interest rate constraint;

References

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  1. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  3. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Solution of Macromodels with Hansen-Sargent Robust Policies: Some Extensions," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 499, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 May 2003.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 0709, European Central Bank.
  6. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
  7. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 2009. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521104609, April.
  8. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Working Paper Series 0218, European Central Bank.
  10. Dennis, Richard & Söderström, Ulf, 2002. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Working Paper Series 139, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Walsh, Carl E., 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt84g1q1g6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  12. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderström, 2006. "Methods for robust control," Working Paper Series 2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Robust Monetary Policy in the New-Keynesian Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 4805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
  15. Levine, Paul, 1992. " Should Rules Be Simple?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 113-38.
  16. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  17. Levine, Paul, 2008. "Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0899, European Central Bank.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
  19. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March.
  20. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia, 2007. "Estimating DSGE Models under Partial Information," CDMA Working Paper Series 200722, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  21. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0870, European Central Bank.
  23. Gino Cateau, 2006. "Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 06-13, Bank of Canada.
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