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Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections

In: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

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  • Nicoletta Batini
  • Paul Levine
  • Joseph Pearlman

Abstract

We build a two-bloc emerging market - rest of the world model. The emerging market bloc incorporates partial transactions and liability dollarization, as well as financial frictions including a ‘financial accelerator’, where capital financing is partly or totally in foreign currency as in Gertler et al. (2003) and Gilchrist (2003)). Simulations of the model under various ‘operational’ monetary policy rules derived assuming that the central bank maximizes households’ utility point to important results. First, we reaffirm the finding in the literature that financial frictions, especially when coupled with liability dollarization, severely increase the costs of a fixed exchange rate regime. By contrast, transactions dollarization has only a small impact on the choice of the monetary regime. Second, central banks in emerging economies with these frictions should not explicitly target the exchange rate; nor should they implicitly do so by choosing a CPI rather than domestic price inflation target. Third, with dollarization and frictions, the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate makes simple Taylor-type rules perform much worse in terms of stabilization performance than fully optimal monetary policy.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Jordi Galí­ & Mark J. Gertler, 2010. "International Dimensions of Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert07-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 0519.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0519

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    1. Simon Gilchrist & Jean-Olivier Hairault & Hubert Kempf, 2002. "Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union," International Finance Discussion Papers 750, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules in a Two-Bloc Model," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0204, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, 02.
    4. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 11523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2004. "FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION: Evaluating the consequences," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 184, Econometric Society.
    6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    7. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Research Working Paper RWP 05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2007. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Working Paper Series 0709, European Central Bank.
    12. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    13. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March.
    14. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    15. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    16. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Working Paper Series 0218, European Central Bank.
    17. Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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    Cited by:
    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open-economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128.
    2. Batini, Nicoletta & Gabriel, Vasco & Levine, Paul, 2010. "A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India," Working Papers 10/70, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes1," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv226, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    7. Carlos García & Jorge Restrepo & Scott Roger, 2009. "Hybrid Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 533, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & David Vavra, 2013. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," IMF Working Papers 13/11, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Runchana Pongsaparn & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2008. "Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand," Working Papers 2008-03, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
    11. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3315-3349, October.
    12. Javier García-Cicco, 2010. "Estimating Models for Monetary Policy Analysis in Emerging Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 561, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "International financial integration, credit frictions and exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 2013015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    14. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in the BRICs," NIPE Working Papers 19/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Nicoletta Batini, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.

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