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Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment

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Author Info
Levine, Paul
McAdam, Peter
Pearlman, Joseph

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Abstract

Our objectives are: to quantify the stabilization welfare gains from commitment; to examine how commitment to an optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium; to find a simple interest rate rule that approximates the optimal commitment one. We utilize an empirical micro-founded euro-area DSGE model, a quadratic approximation of household utility as the welfare criterion, employing a nominal interest rate lower bound. In contrast to previous studies, we find significant commitment stabilization gains of around a 0.4-0.5% equivalent permanent consumption increase, and with higher price stickiness gains over 2%. We find that a simple optimized commitment rule responding to inflation and the real wage mimics the optimal one.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1253-1276
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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:7:p:1253-1276

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Monetary rules Commitment Discretion Welfare gains;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2004. "Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation, Efficiency and Target-Implementability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 441, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 3895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1986. "Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, December.
  10. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dennis, Richard & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2006. "How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 847-872, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Michel Juillard & Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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  15. Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area - a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 747, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521441964 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Choudhary, M. Ali & Levine, Paul, 2006. "Idle worship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 77-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Peter Welz, 2008. "Robust Inflation-Targeting Rules and the Gains from International Policy Coordination," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0208, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard Morris & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls - the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 737, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules - what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Julian von Landesberger, 2007. "Sectoral money demand models for the euro area based on a common set of determinants," Working Paper Series 741, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: some stylised facts from individual producer price data," Working Paper Series 727, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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