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An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

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  • Chen, Xiaoshan
  • Kirsanova, Tatiana
  • Leith, Campbell

Abstract

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both 'good luck' and 'good policy' played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

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  • Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:592
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
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    4. Duncan, Alfred J. M. & Nolan, Charles, 2019. "Disputes, debt and equity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    5. Himmels, Christoph & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2018. "Discretionary policy in a small open economy: Exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-64.
    6. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    7. Chen, Xiaoshan & Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-77, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
    9. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Sudarshan Kumar, 2020. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: inference on complex lead–lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 33-54, April.
    11. Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Kumar, Sudarshan, 2019. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: Inference on complex lead-lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," IIMA Working Papers WP 2019-06-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Tatiana Kirsanova & Charles Nolan & Maryam Shafiei Deh Abad, 2016. "Deep Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Working Papers 2016_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Estimation; Interest Rate Rules; Optimal Monetary Policy; Great Moderation; Commitment; Discretion; Zero Lower Bound; Financial Crisis; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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