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Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking

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  • Dennis, Richard
  • Kirsanova, Tatiana

Abstract

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper we employ notions of learnability and self-enforceability to motivate and identify equilibria of particular interest. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our methods for identifying equilibria of interest. Importantly, unless the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2013-18.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:449

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Keywords: Discretionary policymaking; multiple equilibria; coordination; equilibrium selection;

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Cited by:
  1. Blake, Andrew P. & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Monetary Policy Delegation and Equilibrium Coordination," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-54, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Yuting Bai & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2013. "Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization," Working Papers 2013_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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