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A Floating versus managed exchange rate regime in a DSGE model of India

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  • Batini, Nicoletta

    (IMF and University of Surrey)

  • Gabriel, Vasco

    (University of Surrey)

  • Levine, Paul

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

We first develop a two-bloc model of an emerging open economy interacting with the rest of the world calibrated using Indian and US data. The model features a financial accelerator and is suitable for examining the effects of financial stress on the real economy. Three variants of the model are highlighted with increasing degrees of financial frictions. The model is used to compare two monetary interest rate regimes: domestic Inflation targeting with a floating exchange rate (FLEX(D)) and a managed exchange rate (MEX). Both rules are characterized as a Taylor-type interest rate rules. MEX involves a nominal exchange rate target in the rule and a constraint on its volatility. We find that the imposition of a low exchange rate volatility is only achieved at a significant welfare loss if the policymaker is restricted to a simple domestic inflation plus exchange rate targeting rule. If on the other hand the policymaker can implement a complex optimal rule then an almost fixed exchange rate can be achieved at a relatively small welfare cost. This finding suggests that future research should examine alternative simple rules that mimic the fully optimal rule more closely.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 10/70.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:10/70

Note: Working Paper 70, 2010
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

Related research

Keywords: DSGE model; Indian economy; Monetary interest rate rules; Floating versus managed exchange rate; Financial frictions;

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References

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 200111, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  2. Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2010. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy," NIPE Working Papers 29/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
  4. Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a DSGE Model of India," Working Papers 11/96, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  5. Paul Levine, 2010. "Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World: Probability Models and the Design of Robust Monetary Rules," Working Papers id:2761, eSocialSciences.
  6. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-682.
  7. Paul Levine, 2012. "Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.

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