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An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy

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Author Info

  • Gabriel, Vasco

    (University of Surrey)

  • Levine, Paul

    (University of Surrey)

  • Pearlman, Joseph

    (London Metropolitan University)

  • Yang, Bo

    (University of Surrey and London Metropolitan University)

Abstract

We develop a closed-economy DSGE model of the Indian economy and estimate it by Bayesian Maximum Likelihood methods using Dynare. We build up in stages to a model with a number of features important for emerging economies in general and the Indian economy in particular: a large proportion of credit-constrained consumers, a financial accelerator facing domestic firms seeking to finance their investment, and an informal sector. The simulation properties of the estimated model are examined under a generalized inflation targeting Taylor-type interest rate rule with forward and backward-looking components. We find that, in terms of model posterior probabilities and standard moments criteria, inclusion of the above financial frictions and an infor- mal sector significantly improves the model fit.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 11/95.

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Length: 56
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:11/95

Note: Working Paper 95, 2011
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

Related research

Keywords: Indian economy ; DSGE model ; Bayesian estimation ; Monetary interest rate rules ; Financial frictions;

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  1. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Haider, Adnan & Din, Musleh-ud & Ghani, Ejaz, 2012. "Monetary policy, informality and business cycle fluctuations in a developing economy vulnerable to external shocks," MPRA Paper 42484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jesús Botero G. & Christian Vargas & Álvaro Hurtado Rendón & Humberto Franco, 2014. "Informality and formality: Fiscal policy in DSGE model," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010925, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
  3. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine, 2011. "Getting Normalization Right: Dealing with 'Dimensional Constants' in Macroeconomics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0511, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  4. Paul Levine, 2012. "Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
  5. Ahmed, Waqas & Rehman, Muhammad & Malik, Jahanzeb, 2013. "Quarterly Bayesian DSGE Model of Pakistan Economy with Informality," MPRA Paper 53168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
  7. Zhicheng Zhou & Prapatchon Jariyapan, 2013. "The impact of macroeconomic policies to real estate market in People's Republic of China," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 75 - 92, September.

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