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Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile

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Author Info
Juan Pablo Medina
Claudio Soto

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of copper-price shocks on the Chilean business cycle from a general equilibrium perspective. Using a DSGE model, we compare the effects of transitory copper-price shocks under different fiscal rules. The results show that if the fiscal policy is conducted using a structural balance fiscal rule, such that the government saves most of the extra revenues from the higher copper price, then a copper price shock of 10% would increase output only by 0.05% and there would be a slight decrease in inflation. This last effect occurs due to a real appreciation of the exchange that compensates a slight increase in domestic goods inflation. In contrast, when fiscal policy is highly expansive, the same copper price increase implies an output expansion of up to 0.7%, an increase in inflation, and a real exchange rate appreciate of 0.2%. We show that the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime would have contributed to isolate output (and inflation) from copper price shocks, although our quantification of the effect of this change in policy is small. We also show that if the structural balance fiscal rule lacks credibility, then a copper price shock would lead to much higher inflation than under full credibility.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 458.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:458

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jordi Galí & J. David López Salido & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Banco de España Working Papers 0321, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  3. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alejandro Drexler & Eduardo Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2001. "El cobre y la estrategia fiscal óptima para Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 101, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlos Garcia & Jorge Restrepo, 2007. "The Case for a Countercyclical Rule-based Fiscal Regime," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv183, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. J. Galí & D. López-Salido & J. Vallés, 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Simple, Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 09/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cristina Betancour & Jose De Gregorio & Juan Pablo Medina, 2006. "The “Great Moderation” and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 393, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2007. "What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 446, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(16), pages 1-31. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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