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Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules

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  • Paul Levine

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the transformation of macro-modelling from reduced form behavioural equations estimated separately, through to contemporary microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models estimated by systems methods. It is argued that estimated DSGE models should be seen as probability models that can be used as a laboratory for assessing new policies in a new and uncertain environment. The methodology is particularly relevant for emerging economies such as India. Design/methodology/approach – This paper has analytical, empirical and policy dimensions. Estimating DSGE models by Bayesian-Maximum-Likelihood methods results in a posterior distribution of parameters that quantifies the uncertainty facing the policymaker. This, in turn, can be used for robust policy design. Findings – The paper reviews evidence that inflation targeting in emerging economies welfare-dominates exchange rate targeting. Originality/value – This lies in the papers reviewed including those involving the author.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Indian Growth and Development Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 70-88

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Handle: RePEc:eme:igdrpp:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:70-88

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Related research

Keywords: ayesian estimation; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Emerging economies; Financial modelling; India; Inflation; Interest rates; Interest-rate rules; Monetary policy; Robustness; Structured uncertainty;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Nicoletta Batini & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "A Floating versus Managed Exchange Rate Regime in a DSGE Model of India," NIPE Working Papers 31/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
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  12. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 1999. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: the role of interest rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 014, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  13. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
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  17. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
  18. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Apr 2014.
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  28. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Grzegorz Koloch & Krzysztof Makarski & Michał Rubaszek, 2013. "Monetary Policy In A Non-Representative Agent Economy: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 641-669, 09.
  29. Levine, Paul, 2008. "Robust monetary rules under unstructured and structured model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0899, European Central Bank.
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  33. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph G. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0870, European Central Bank.
  34. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Nicoletta Batini, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 09/22, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  36. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  37. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Policy Focus: Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 166-190, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Asongu, Simplice A, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," MPRA Paper 48494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," Working Papers 13/016, African Governance and Development Institute..

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