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Optimal monetary policy under sudden stops

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  • Vasco Cúrdia

Abstract

Emerging market economies often face sudden stops in capital inflows or reduced access to the international capital market. This paper analyzes what monetary policy should accomplish in such an event. Optimal monetary policy induces higher interest rates and exchange rate depreciation. The interest rate hike discourages borrowing and consumption, mitigating the impact of the increased cost of borrowing. The exchange rate depreciation provides a boost to export revenues, reducing the need for, but not averting, a domestic recession. The paper shows that the arrival of the sudden stop further aggravates the time inconsistency problem. Optimal policy is fairly well approximated by a flexible targeting rule, which stabilizes a basket composed of domestic price inflation, exchange rate and output. We show that from a welfare perspective, the success of a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the economic environment. For the benchmark parameterization, the peg performs the worst of the simple rules considered. For alternative parameterizations that feature low nominal rigidities or high elasticity of foreign demand, the fixed exchange rate regime performs relatively better.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 323.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:323

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; International finance ; Macroeconomics ; Foreign exchange rates ; Inflation targeting;

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  1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2006. "Linear-quadratic approximation of optimal policy problems," Discussion Papers 0607-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2007. "Optimal Inflation Targeting under Alternative Fiscal Regimes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 3, pages 037-075 Central Bank of Chile.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Current account dynamics and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2008-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Paul Levine, 2012. "Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
  3. F. Gulcin Ozkan & D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "On the use of monetary and macroprudential policies for financial stability in emerging markets," Discussion Papers 13/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  4. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Scott Davis & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 85, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. F. Gulcin Ozkan & D. Filiz Unsal, 2012. "Global financial crisis, financial contagion and emerging markets," Discussion Papers 12/35, Department of Economics, University of York.
  7. Seong-Hoon Kim, 2011. "Sequential Action and Beliefs under Partially Observable DSGE Environments," CDMA Working Paper Series 201116, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. Wen-Yao Grace Wang & Paula Hernandez-Verme & Raymond A. K. Cox Author E-mail: rcox@unbc.ca, 2012. "Financial Fragility, Exchange-Rate Regimes, and Sudden Stops in a Small Open Economy," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 25-54, September.
  9. Paul D. McNelis, 2014. "Finding Stability in a Time of Crisis: Lessons of East Asia for Eastern Europe," Working Papers 052014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Gulcin Ozkan & Filiz Unsal, . "External finance, sudden stops and financial crisis: what is different this time?," Discussion Papers 09/22, Department of Economics, University of York.
  11. D. Filiz Unsal, 2011. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 11/189, International Monetary Fund.

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