Medium-term business cycles in developing countries
AbstractEmpirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5146.
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; Political Economy; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Markets and Market Access;
Other versions of this item:
- Comin, Diego & Loayza, Norman & Pasha, Farooq & Servén, Luis, 2011. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Diego A. Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2009. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 15428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diego A. Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2009. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-029, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2010.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-12-19 (Development)
- NEP-DGE-2009-12-19 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2009-12-19 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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