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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

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Author Info

  • Diego A. Comin

    ()
    (Harvard Business School, Business, Government and the International Economy Unit)

  • Norman Loayza

    ()
    (Economics Research, World Bank Group)

  • Farooq Pasha

    ()
    (Boston College, Economics)

  • Luis Serven

    ()
    (World Bank - Office of the Chief Economist)

Abstract

We build a two country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output.

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File URL: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-029.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard Business School in its series Harvard Business School Working Papers with number 10-029.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision: Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:10-029

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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles in Developing Countries; Co-movement between Developed and Developing economies; Volatility; Extensive Margin of Trade; Product Life Cycle; FDI.;

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References

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  1. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fabio Ghironi & Marc Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," 2004 Meeting Papers 451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, 05.
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 13054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  6. Talan B. Iscan, 1998. "Financing Constraints and Investment Decline in Mexico," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive fdis98, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  7. Warner, Andrew M., 1994. "Mexico's investment collapse: debt or oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
  8. Warner, Andrew M, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-86, November.
  9. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. Stokey, Nancy L, 1991. "The Volume and Composition of Trade between Rich and Poor Countries," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 63-80, January.
  11. R. Gaston Gelos & Alberto Isgut, 2001. "Fixed Capital Adjustment: Is Latin America Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 717-726, November.
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  13. Gaston Gelos & Alberto Isgut, 1999. "Fixed Capital Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 99/59, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Marti, 2013. "Technology Diffusion:Measurement, Causes and Consequences," TSE Working Papers 13-420, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  2. Paul Levine, 2012. "Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
  3. Wei Liao & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," Working Papers 042012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Queraltó, Albert, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Asli Leblebicioglu & Kolver Hernandez, 2012. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Emerging Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Ana Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 34, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2011. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2011/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  8. Choudhary, M. Ali & Hanif, M. Nadim & Khan, Sajawal & Rehman, Muhammad, 2010. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," MPRA Paper 27022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kadish, Peter, 2010. "Are Large Multinational Companies Undervalued? Emerging Markets Perspective," MPRA Paper 24315, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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