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The Decision to Export and the Volatility of Sales

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  • Alejandro Riaño

Abstract

This paper studies the export decision of risk-averse firms in a model featuring aggregate uncertainty and no capital markets. Firms seeking to enter the foreign market face a sunk cost as well as a fixed participation cost every period they export. Using a calibrated version of the model, I show that firms are more likely to export when the correlation between domestic and foreign aggregate shocks is negative and when their degree of risk-aversion is higher. Counterfactual experiments show that exporting increases the volatility of total sales.

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File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/papers/2010/10-12.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Nottingham, GEP in its series Discussion Papers with number 10/12.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:10/12

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Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/index.aspx
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Related research

Keywords: Exports; Aggregate uncertainty; Heterogeneous-firm models of international trade;

References

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  13. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  14. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  15. Maloney, William F. & Azevedo, Rodrigo R., 1995. "Trade reform, uncertainty, and export promotion: Mexico 1982-88," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 67-89, October.
  16. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2009. "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico's Maquiladora Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1664-71, September.
  17. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  19. Hirsch, Seev & Lev, Baruch, 1971. "Sales Stabilization Through Export Diversification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 270-77, August.
  20. Costas Arkolakis, 2010. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151 - 1199.
  21. Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-68, June.
  22. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
  25. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2005. "Do sunk costs of exporting matter for net export dynamics?," Working Papers 05-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  26. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
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