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Trade Openness and Volatility

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Author Info
Julian di Giovanni (International Monetary Fund)
Andrei A Levchenko (University of Michigan and International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel data set of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is accompanied by increased specialization. These two forces imply increased aggregate volatility. Third, sectors that are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy, an effect that acts to reduce overall volatility. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the relationship between trade openness and overall volatility is positive and economically significant. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/rest.91.3.558
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (01)
Pages: 558-585
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:558-585

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pravin Krishna & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Comparative Advantage, Complexity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Claudia M. Buch & Christian Pierdzioch, 2009. "Low Skill but High Volatility?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pravin Krishna & Mine Zeynep Senses, 2009. "International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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