Openness, Volatility and the Risk Content of Exports
AbstractIt has been observed that more open countries experience higher output growth volatility. This paper uses an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade to analyze the mechanisms through which trade can affect the volatility of production. We find that sectors with higher trade are more volatile and that trade leads to increased specialization. These two forces act to increase overall volatility. We also find that sectors which are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy, an effect that acts to reduce aggregate volatility. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that a one standard deviation change in trade openness is associated with an increase in aggregate volatility of about 15% of the mean volatility observed in the data. The results are also used to provide estimates of the welfare cost of increased volatility under several sets of assumptions. We then propose a summary measure of the riskiness of a country's pattern of export specialization, and analyze its features across countries and over time. There is a great deal of variation in countries' risk content of exports, but it does not have a simple relationship to the level of income or other country characteristics
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 86.
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC
Trade; Output Volatility; Risk Content of Exports;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
- Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna & William Maloney, 2005.
"Trade Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare,"
NBER Working Papers
11255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krebs, tom & Krishna, Pravin & Maloney, William, 2005. "Trade policy, income risk, and welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3622, The World Bank.
- Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna & William Maloney, 2004. "Trade Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare," Working Papers 2004-09, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna, 2005. "Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare," 2005 Meeting Papers 271, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ricardo Reis, 2009.
"The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, 06.
- Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ricardo Reis, 2005. "The time-series properties of aggregate consumption: implications for the costs of fluctuations," Working Papers 134, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Ricardo Reis, 2005. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuation," NBER Working Papers 11297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio Attanasio & Steven J. Davis, 1994.
"Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
4771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-62, December.
- Braun, Matias & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005.
"Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3517, The World Bank.
- Matías Braun & Claudio Raddatz, 2004. "Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development," Working Papers 04-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kevin Cowan & Alejandro Neut, 2007. "Intermediate Goods, Institutions and Output per Worker," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 420, Central Bank of Chile.
- Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.
- Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2009.
"Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 629-668.
- Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2008. "Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade," IEW - Working Papers 359, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Paolo Epifani & Gino Gancia, 2005. "Openness, government size and the terms of trade," Economics Working Papers 915, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2008.
- Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.