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Trade Openness and Output Volatility

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  • Bejan, Maria

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of trade openness on output volatility. We find that trade openness generally increased output volatility, although this effect was stronger and more significant during 1950-1975 than during 1975-2000. However, if we split the sample into developed and developing countries, we observe that more openness increased volatility in developing countries, while it helped smooth output in developed countries. We also find that the size of the government may have increased volatility in less developed countries. Part of the positive relation between openness and volatility may be explained by the positive relation between openness and government size. Another important finding of this paper is that once we control for government size and some measures of external risk, such as terms of trade volatility and export concentration index, the effect of openness on the output volatility turns out to be negative.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2759.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2759

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Keywords: Trade; Openness; Volatility;

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Cited by:
  1. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
  2. Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
  3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 97 - 151.
  4. Haddad, Mona & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Pancaro, Cosimo & Saborowski, Christian, 2012. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Working Paper Series 1491, European Central Bank.
  5. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
  6. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008297, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  8. Kueh, Jerome Swee-Hui & Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Chiew-Meu, 2008. "Bounds Estimation for Trade Openness and Government Expenditure Nexus of ASEAN-4 Countries," MPRA Paper 12351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2008. "Trade Openness and Volatility," IMF Working Papers 08/146, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jang Ping Thia, 2008. "The impact of trade on aggregate productivity and welfare with heterogeneous firms and business cycle uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Matteo Cacciatore, 2012. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Labor Market Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Jang Ping Thia, 2008. "The Impact of Trade on Aggregate Productivity and Welfare with Heterogeneous Firms and Business Cycle Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp0883, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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