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Trade Openness and Volatility

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Author Info
Julian di Giovanni (International Monetary Fund)
Andrei A. Levchenko (International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract

This paper examines the mechanisms through which trade openness affects output volatility using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade leads to increased specialization. These two forces act to increase aggregate volatility. Third, sectors which are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy, an effect that acts to reduce overall volatility. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the overall e®ect of trade openness is positive and economically signi¯cant. This impact also varies a great deal with country characteristics. We estimate that the same increase in openness raises aggregate volatility five times more in developing countries compared to developed ones. Finally, we find that the marginal impact of openness on volatility roughly doubled in the last thirty years, implying that trade exerts a larger influence on volatility over time.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano in its series Development Working Papers with number 219.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: 22 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:219

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Related research
Keywords: Trade; Output Volatility; Specialization; Comovement; Sector-Level Data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claudia M. Buch & Christian Pierdzioch, 2009. "Low Skill but High Volatility?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2009. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4896, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pravin Krishna & Mine Zeynep Senses, 2009. "International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pravin Krishna & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Comparative Advantage, Complexity and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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