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Did the debt crisis cause the investment crisis?

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Andrew M. Warner

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Abstract

There is now a large literature which attributes the investment decline in heavily indebted developing countries to the effects of the international debt crisis which began in 1982. However, these theories have not been tested against the alternative that declining terms of trade and high world real interest rates in the early 1980s directly caused the investment declines. This paper is based on the idea that if the debt theories are true, then forecasts of investment in the 1980s which do not use debt variables should not perform very well. This paper points out that such forecasts perform surprisingly well, and in many cases go against the predictions of the debt theories, casting doubt on the validity of the debt theories.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 418.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:418

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Keywords: Debt ; Developing countries ; Financial crises;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Rina Bhattacharya & Benedict J. Clements, 2004. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/249, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," Business School Working Papers exchangerates, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dulleck, Uwe & Foster, Neil, 2008. "Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 233-250, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Panos C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1995. "The Impact Of International Indebtedness On The Import-Export Sectors Of Developing Countries," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 73-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. A. Dalmazzo & Guido De Blasio, 2001. "Resources and Incentives to Reform: A Model and Some Evidence on Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/86, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hendricks, Lutz, . "Equipment Investment and Growth In Developing Countries," Working Papers 97/5, Arizona State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tim Allen & Diana Weinhold, 2000. "Dropping the debt for the new millennium: is it such a good idea?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 857-875.
  8. Imbs, Jean & Ranciere, Romain, 2005. "The overhang hangover," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3673, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003
    [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]    ," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
  10. Peter Hjertholm & Jytte Laursen & Howard White, 2000. "Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid," Discussion Papers 00-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Talan B. Iscan, 1998. "Financing Constraints and Investment Decline in Mexico," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive fdis98, Dalhousie, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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