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Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth : A Policy Simulation Model for India

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  • Sudipto Mundle

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Surajit Das

Abstract

In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The model is then used to estimate the outcomes resulting from a possible strategy of fiscal consolidation in the base case. The exercise shows that it is possible to have fiscal consolidation while at the same time maintaining high GDP growth of around 8% or so. The strategy is to gradually bring down the revenue deficit to zero by 2014-15, while allowing a combined fiscal deficit for centre plus states of about 6% of GDP. This provides the space for substantial government capital expenditure, which translates to a significant public investment program. This in turn leads to high overall investment directly and indirectly, via the crowding in effect on private investment, which drives the high GDP growth. The exercise has also tested the robustness of this strategy under two alternative scenarios of higher and lower advanced country growth compared to the base case.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 23070.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23070

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Keywords: Macroeconomic Modelling; Policy Simulation; Fiscal Policy; India;

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References

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  1. Jordi Galí, 2008. "The new Keynesian approach to monetary policy analysis: Lessons and new directions," Economics Working Papers 1075, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Tommaso Monacelli & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union," Working Papers 300, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. NR, Bhanumurthy & Kumawat, Lokendra, 2009. "External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model," MPRA Paper 19776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "Labour Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework Princeton University Press.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfi Li, 2005. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 11830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 10/21, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  10. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Monetary Policy Design in the Basic New Keynesian Model," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework Princeton University Press.
  11. Shahid Ali & Somia Irum & Asghar Ali, 2008. "Whether Fiscal Stance or Monetary Policy is Effective for Economic Growth in Case of South Asian Countries?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 791-799.
  12. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Monetary Policy and the Open Economy," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework Princeton University Press.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Sharma, Chandan, 2013. "Does Weak Rupee Matter for India's Manufacturing Exports?," Working Papers 13/115, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  2. Kelkar, Vijay & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Indian social democracy: The resource perspective," Working Papers 11/82, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  3. Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, Surajit & Bose, Sukanya, 2012. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India," Working Papers 12/99, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  4. Mundle, Sudipto & M.Govinda Rao & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "Stimulus, Recovery and Exit Policy G20 Experience and Indian Strategy," Working Papers 11/85, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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