IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/npf/wpaper/15-148.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Bose, Sukanya

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Adhikari, Parma Devi

    (National institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This study attempts to construct a consistent macroeconomic framework for India to review the macro-fiscal linkages over the 14th Finance Commission period of 2015-19. The existing NIPFP model has been reworked to add a full-fledged real sector block comprising of agriculture, industry, services and infrastructure, with the overall economy comprising of real sector block, external block, monetary block, fiscal block and macroeconomic block. The estimated model was used for policy simulations that are relevant for the 14th Finance Commission. The various scenarios include (a) shock due to 7th Pay Commission award, (b) targeting deficit and debt and (c) targeting higher growth. The results suggest that while Pay Commission award would result in slightly higher growth compared to the base case, this also results in higher inflation, fiscal-revenue deficits, current account deficit as well as higher government liability. Further simulation results suggest that expenditure switching policy, which is the core of expansionary fiscal consolidation mechanism, of increasing higher government capital expenditure and reducing the government transfers could result in higher growth with a manageable fiscal deficit of 5.3 per cent that also brings down the government (centre plus states) liability to around 60 per cent by 2019-20.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Adhikari, Parma Devi, 2015. "Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach," Working Papers 15/148, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:15/148
    Note: Working Paper 148, 2015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2015/05/WP_2015_148.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin S. Nell, 2013. "An alternative explanation of India's growth transition: a demand-side hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 113-141.
    2. Mundle, Sudipto & Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Das, Surajit, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2657-2668.
    3. Surajit Das & Sukanya Bose & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2014. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-Through Policy and its Impact on India," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Ratan Khasnabis & Indrani Chakraborty (ed.), Market, Regulations and Finance, edition 127, chapter 13, pages 231-253, Springer.
    4. N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Swayamsiddha Panda, 2014. "Modelling India’s External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 457-493, November.
    5. Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
    6. Krishnamurty, K. & Pandit, V., 1997. "Exchange rate, tariff and trade flows: Alternative policy scenarios for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 425-454.
    7. Harish Mani & G. Bhalachandran & V. N. Pandit, 2011. "Public Investment In Agricultural And Gdp Growth-- Another Look At The Inter Sectoral Linkages And Policy Implications," Working papers 201, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    8. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Panda, Swayamsiddha, 2014. "Modeling India's External Sector: Review and Some Empirics," Working Papers 14/138, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    9. Petia Topalova & Dan Nyberg, 2010. "What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?," IMF Working Papers 2010/007, International Monetary Fund.
    10. V N Pandit & Harish Mani & G Balachandran, 2011. "Public Investment in Agricultural and GDP Growth: Another Look at the Inter Sectoral Linkages and Policy Implications," Working Papers id:4385, eSocialSciences.
    11. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation," Working Papers 05/35, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. K.N.Murty & A. Soumya, 2006. "Macroeconomic effects of public investment in infrastructure in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    13. Unknown, 1961. "Economic Growth and Inflation," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 1-3.
    14. Ministry of Finance,, 2013. "Economic Survey 2012-13," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198095439, Decembrie.
    15. Mundle, Sudipto & M.Govinda Rao & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "Stimulus, Recovery and Exit Policy G20 Experience and Indian Strategy," Working Papers 11/85, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    16. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chhibber, Ajay & Kalloor, Akshata, 2016. "Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers," Working Papers 16/181, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Rajbhushan J NAYAK & Vishwanath PANDIT & Gopakumar K. U, 2020. "Structural modeling of fiscal structure for policy analysis: A case study of India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 139-160, Autumn.
    3. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Devolution and Indian Economy," Working Papers 19/287, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Skrobotov, Anton, 2015. "Likelihood Ratio Test for Change in Persistence," Published Papers skr001, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
    2. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Devolution and Indian Economy," Working Papers 19/287, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Gopakumar K.U. & V. Pandit, 2014. "Production, Procurement and Inflation: A Market Model for Foodgrains," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 431-456, November.
    4. Srivastava, Dinesh Kumar & Kapur, Tarrung & Bharadwaj, Muralikrishna & Trehan, Ragini, 2020. "Impact of Covid-19 on global debt: a study of countries in the G-20 group," MPRA Paper 108379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Fiscal policy and macroeconomic effects: structural macroeconometric model and simulation analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 81-105, June.
    6. Debasis Panda & Ankita Sahu, 2023. "Links between Public Expenditure and the Performance of Agriculture in India," Journal of Studies in Dynamics and Change (JSDC), ISSN: 2348-7038, Voices of Inclusive Change and Expressions- (VOICE) Trust, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, vol. 10(2), pages 1-10, April-Jun.
    7. Gopakumar K.U. & V. Pandit, 2014. "Production, Procurement And Inflation-A Market Model For Food Grains," Working papers 238, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    8. Krystof Obidzinski & Ahmad Dermawan & Adi Hadianto, 2014. "Oil palm plantation investments in Indonesia’s forest frontiers: limited economic multipliers and uncertain benefits for local communities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 1177-1196, December.
    9. Gopakumar K.U. & V. Pandit, 2014. "Price Movements For Rice And Wheat - A Structuralist Policy Perspective," Working papers 240, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    11. Aneesha Chitgupi, 2019. "Macroeconomic determinants of software services exports and impact on external stabilisation for India: An empirical analysis," Working Papers 432, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    12. Sur, Abhisek & Ray, Partha & Nandy, Amarendu, 2019. "India’s external commercial borrowing: Pulled by domestic fundamentals or pushed by global conditions?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 65-77.
    13. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Asharani Samal & Mallesh Ummalla & Phanindra Goyari, 2022. "The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, March.
    16. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    17. Anand, Mukesh Kumar, 2016. "Reforming fossil fuel prices in India: Dilemma of a developing economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 139-150.
    18. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    20. Nepal Rastra Bank NRB, 2015. "Agricultural Credit and its Impact on Farm Productivity: A Case Study of Kailali District," Working Papers id:7055, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation ; Government debt ; Fiscal deficit ; Macroeconometric modeling ; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:15/148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: S.Siva Chidambaram (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nipfp.org.in .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.