Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fiscal deficits and government debt in India: Implications for growth and stabilisation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rangarajan, C.

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Srivastava, D.K.

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines the long term profile of fiscal deficit and debt relative to GDP in India, with a view to analysing debt-deficit sustainability issues along with the considerations relevant for determining suitable medium and short-term fiscal policy stance. The impact of debt and fiscal deficit on growth and interest rates that arises from their effect on saving and investment are critical in any examination of sustainability of debt and deficit. It is argued that large structural primary deficits and interest payments relative to GDP have had an adverse effect on growth in recent years. The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget management Act (FRBMA) of the central government has certain positive features. While the fiscal deficit target has been defined, it should be considered in conjunction with a target debt-GDP ratio. Further, the central FRBMA should be supplemented by state level fiscal responsibility legislations and an effective hard budget constraint on subnational borrowing. There is a clear need to bring down the combined debt-GDP ratio from its current level, which is in excess of 80 percent of GDP. The process of adjustment can be considered in two phases: adjustment phase and stabilisation phase. In the adjustment phase, fiscal deficit should be reduced in each successive year until revenue deficit, and correspondingly, government dissaving, is eliminated. In the second phase, fiscal deficit could be stabilised at 6 percent of GDP. The debt-GDP ratio would eventually stabilise at 56 percent. In this process, the ratio of interest payments to revenue receipts will fall, enabling a progressively larger amount of primary revenue expenditure to be incurred on the social sectors.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/working_paper/wp05_nipfp_035.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 05/35.

    as in new window
    Length: 67
    Date of creation: Jul 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:05/35

    Note: Working Paper 35, 2005
    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal deficit ; Economic growth;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Barro, Robert J., 1987. "Government spending, interest rates, prices, and budget deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-247, September.
    2. Hsiao, Cheng, 2001. "Identification And Dichotomization Of Long- And Short-Run Relations Of Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 889-912, October.
    3. James M. Buchanan & Richard A. Musgrave, 1999. "Public Finance and Public Choice: Two Contrasting Visions of the State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262024624, December.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    5. Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2004. "Structural Breaks, Unit Roots, and Cointegration: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 196-219, March.
    6. Pradhan, B. K. & Ratha, D. K. & Sarma, Atul, 1990. "Complementarity between public and private investment in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 101-116, July.
    7. Moorthy, Vivek & Singh, Bhupal & Dhal, Sarat Chandra, 2000. "Bond financing and debt stability: theoretical issues and empirical analysis for India," MPRA Paper 12148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. C. Rangarajan & D. K. Srivastava, 2008. "Reforming India’S Fiscal Transfer System: Resolving Vertical And Horizontal Imbalances," Working Papers 2008-031, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:05/35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (S.Siva Chidambaram).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.