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Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finances of India

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  • Willem H. Buiter
  • Urjit R. Patel

Abstract

The paper studies the solvency of the Indian public sector and the eventual monetization and inflation implied by stabilization of the debt-GNP ratio without any changes in the primary deficit. The nonstationarity of the discounted public debt suggests that indefinite continuation of the pattern of behavior reflected in the historical discounted debt process is inconsistent with the maintenance of solvency. This message is reinforced by the recent behavior of the debt-GNP ratio and the ratio of primary surplus plus seigniorage to GNP. Our estimates of the base money demand function suggest that even maximal use of seigniorage will not be sufficient to restore solvency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3287.

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Date of creation: Mar 1990
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Publication status: published as Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 171-205, (1992).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3287

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Krichel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 28-54, March.
  2. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
  3. Alain Paquet, 1998. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 59, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  4. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
  5. Makrydakis, S. & Tzavalis, E. & Balfoussias, A., 1996. "Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece," Discussion Papers 9601, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  6. Pinto, Brian & Zahir, Farah, 2004. "India : why fiscal adjustment now," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3230, The World Bank.
  7. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  8. repec:ind:nipfwp:32 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Maurya, Nagendra Kumar, 2014. "Debt sustainability of state finances of Uttar Pradesh government," MPRA Paper 55692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ozatay, Fatih, 1997. "Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 661-681, December.
  11. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
  12. Prasad, A & Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2003. "Government Deficit and Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 51106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
  13. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
  14. Kaushik Basu, 2008. "The Enigma of India," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 396-406, June.
  15. Dutt, Amitava Krishna & Rao, J. Mohan, 1996. "Growth, distribution, and the environment: Sustainable development in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 287-305, February.
  16. Patel, Urjit R. & Srivastava, Pradeep, 1996. "Macroeconomic policy and output comovement: The formal and informal sectors in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1915-1923, December.
  17. Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer, 1994. "Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1070, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1997. "Capital Income Taxation and the Sustainability of Permanent Primary Deficits," Discussion Paper 1997-11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  19. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.

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