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Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finance of India

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  • Buiter, Willem H
  • Patel, U

Abstract

The paper studies the solvency of the Indian public sector and the eventual monetization and inflation implied by stabilization of the debt/GNP ratio without any changes in the primary deficit. The non-stationarity of the discounted public debt suggests that solvency cannot be maintained with an indefinite continuation of the pattern of behaviour reflected in the historical discounted debt process. This message is reinforced by the recent behaviour of the debt/GNP ratio and the ratio of primary surplus plus seigniorage to GNP. Our estimates of the base money demand function suggest that even maximal use of seigniorage will not be sufficient to restore solvency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 408.

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Date of creation: Apr 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:408

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Keywords: Public Debt; Seigniorage; Solvency;

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Cited by:
  1. Makrydakis, S. & Tzavalis, E. & Balfoussias, A., 1996. "Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece," Discussion Papers 9601, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  2. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1997. "Capital Income Taxation and the Sustainability of Permanent Primary Deficits," Discussion Paper 1997-11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Pinto, Brian & Zahir, Farah, 2004. "India : why fiscal adjustment now," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3230, The World Bank.
  4. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. Experience 1929-2004," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 05xx, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  5. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
  6. Kaushik Basu, 2008. "The Enigma of India," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 396-406, June.
  7. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
  8. Prasad, A & Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2003. "Government Deficit and Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 51106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
  9. Thomas Krichel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 28-54, March.
  10. Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer, 1994. "Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1070, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Patel, Urjit R. & Srivastava, Pradeep, 1996. "Macroeconomic policy and output comovement: The formal and informal sectors in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1915-1923, December.
  12. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
  13. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
  14. Dutt, Amitava Krishna & Rao, J. Mohan, 1996. "Growth, distribution, and the environment: Sustainable development in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 287-305, February.
  15. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
  16. Alain Paquet, 1998. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 59, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  17. Ozatay, Fatih, 1997. "Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 661-681, December.

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