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Fiscal Multipliers for India

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  • Bose, Sukanya

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper attempts to present a framework for the estimation of fiscal multipliers for the Indian economy in the structural macroeconomic modelling tradition. Empirical estimates of short-run multipliers are obtained by giving shocks to a range of fiscal instruments - expenditures and taxes. As per our estimates, the values of capital expenditure multiplier, transfer payments multiplier and other revenue expenditure multiplier are 2.45, 0.98, and 0.99, respectively, while the tax multipliers are in the range of -1. Expenditure multipliers were also obtained in the presence of fiscal consolidation targets. These estimates again point to the strong multiplier effect of capital expenditure on output, and underscore the need to prioritize capital expenditure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 13/125.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:13/125

Note: Working Paper 125, 2013
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1980. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," NBER Working Papers 0432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sudipto Mundle & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Surajit Das, 2010. "Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth : A Policy Simulation Model for India," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23070, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Nickel, Christiane & Tudyka, Andreas, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus in times of high debt: reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits," Working Paper Series 1513, European Central Bank.
  4. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 219-265, 04.
  6. Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, Surajit & Bose, Sukanya, 2012. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India," Working Papers 12/99, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Magda ElSayed Kandil, 2013. "Variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing: evidence across industrial countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4894-4927, December.
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1309, Banco de Espa�a.
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