IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jqecon/v18y2020i3d10.1007_s40953-020-00211-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ranjan Kumar Mohanty

    (Xavier University Bhubaneswar)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in India, during the period from 1970–71 to 2018–19. Using a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Simultaneous Error Correction Approach, this study shows that fiscal deficit and revenue deficit have an adverse effect on economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. The empirical analysis confirms that fiscal deficit influences economic growth both directly, and indirectly through the routes of investment, interest rate, current account deficit and composition of government expenditure. Further, gross investment has a positive and inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. For a policy perspective, the government should control fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as suggested by the FRBM Act. The composition of government expenditure should be altered to devote more resources for the formation of productive capital in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 683-707, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:18:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-020-00211-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-020-00211-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-020-00211-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40953-020-00211-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Muscatelli, V A & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, D, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1467-1477, November.
    3. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2008. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2203-2220, December.
    4. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2010. "Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 276-290, November.
    5. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    6. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2018. "Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Linkage in India: Impact of FRBM Act," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Naseer Ahmed Khan (ed.), Challenges and Issues in Indian Fiscal Federalism, chapter 0, pages 89-105, Springer.
    7. Lance Taylor & Christian R. Proaño & Laura de Carvalho & Nelson Barbosa, 2012. "Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(1), pages 189-204.
    8. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Baldacci, Emanuele & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2005. "Fiscal policy, expenditure composition, and growth in low-income countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 441-463, April.
    9. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    10. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    11. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    12. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    15. Dua, Pami & Pandit, B. L., 2002. "Interest rate determination in India: domestic and external factors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 853-875, December.
    16. Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
    17. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    18. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2021. "Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in determining interest rate in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 293-318, April.
    19. HARJIT K. Arora & PAMI Dua, 1993. "Budget Deficits, Domestic Investment, And Trade Deficits," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 29-44, January.
    20. Tan, Eu Chye, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Inflation and Economic Growth in a Successful Open Developing Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11.
    21. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 190-210, April.
    22. Tokunbo Simbowale Osinubi & Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda & Oladele Emmanuel Olaleru, 2010. "Budget Deficits, External Debt And Economic Growth In Nigeria," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 491-521.
    23. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    24. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
    25. Atrayee Ghosh Roy & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2009. "Budget deficits and U.S. economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3015-3030.
    26. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1994. "The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-191, October.
    27. Nadeem A. Burney & Naeem Akhtar, 1992. "Government Budget Deficits and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882.
    28. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    29. Eisner, Robert & Pieper, Paul J, 1986. "A New View of the Federal Debt and Budget Deficits: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1156-1157, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Yue Mei & Shi, Yun Rui, 2021. "Impact of the VAT reduction policy on local fiscal pressure in China in light of the COVID-19 pandemic: A measurement based on a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 253-264.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    2. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2012. "Growth, Deficits and Uncertainty in a Panel of 28 Countries," Working Paper series 52_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Tuan T. Chu & Jens Hölscher & Dermot McCarthy, 2020. "The impact of productive and non-productive government expenditure on economic growth: an empirical analysis in high-income versus low- to middle-income economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2403-2430, May.
    4. Chiara DEL BO, 2009. "Recent advances in public investment, fiscal policy and growth," Departmental Working Papers 2009-25, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. António Afonso & Juan Alegre, 2011. "Economic growth and budgetary components: a panel assessment for the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 703-723, December.
    6. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    7. Céline Carrère & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Fiscal Spending and Economic Growth: Some Stylized Facts," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 7, pages 167-196, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Teles, Vladimir K. & Cesar Mussolini, Caio, 2014. "Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Nasir Iqbal & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2017. "The Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Pakistan: New Evidence," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 53-72, September.
    10. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Amit Nandan & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Do growth-promoting factors induce income inequality in a transitioning large developing economy? An empirical evidence from Indian states," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1109-1139, May.
    12. James L. Butkiewicz & Halit Yanikkaya, 2011. "Institutions and the Impact of Government Spending on Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 319-341, November.
    13. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    14. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    15. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    16. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2008. "Government spending, trade openness and economic growth in India: A Time series analysis," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 403, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    17. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    18. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    19. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2017. "Public Spending Reallocations And Economic Growth Across Different Income Levels," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 98-114, January.
    20. Vratislav Izák, 2011. "Vliv vládních výdajů a daní na ekonomický růst (empirická analýza) [Government Expenditures and Taxes Influence on the Economic Growth (Empirical Analysis)]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 147-163.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:18:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-020-00211-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.