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Fiscal Deficits and Growth in Developing Countries

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Author Info
Christopher Adam
David Bevan

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Abstract

This paper examines the relation between fiscal deficits and growth for a panel of 45 developing countries. Based on a consistent treatment of the government budget constraint, it finds evidence of a threshold effect at a level of the deficit around 1.5% of GDP. While there appears to be a growth payoff to reducing deficits to this level, this effect disappears or reverses itself for further fiscal contraction. The magnitude of this payoff, but not its general character, necessarily depends on how changes in the deficit are financed (through changes in borrowing or seigniorage) and on how the change in the deficit is accommodated elsewhere in the budget. We also find evidence of interaction effects between deficits and debt stocks, with high debt stocks exacerbating the adverse consequences of high deficits.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 120.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:120

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal defcits; growth; threshold effects; developing countries;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Joel Slemrod, 1995. "Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 373-431. [Downloadable!]
  2. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Miller, Stephen M & Russek, Frank S, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 603-13, July.
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  7. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gemmell, Norman, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Genberg, 2005. "The macroeconomic effects of adjustment lending: A review and evaluation," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Keith Blackburn & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & M. Emranul Haque, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 103, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2008. "Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: A Fresh Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/42, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ruth Rios-Morales, 2006. "Structural Weakness in Nicaragua : Hindrances to Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp169, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Weeks & Terry McKinley, 2006. "Does Debt Relief Increase Fiscal Space in Zambia? The MDG Implications," Country Study 5, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. [Downloadable!]
  6. Raghbendra Jha, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A Synoptic View," ASARC Working Papers 2007-01, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michele Berardi, 2008. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: learning and predictor choice dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 104, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alejandro Simone & Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Sanjeev Gupta, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/244, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ruth Rios-Morales, 2006. "Structural Weakness in Nicaragua : Hindrances to Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp146, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  10. Keith Blackburn & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & M. Emranul Haque, 2008. "Corruption, Seigniorage and Growth: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard Hughes & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Teresa Ter-Minassian, 2008. "Creating Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure: The Case of Tanzania," IMF Working Papers 08/256, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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