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External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model

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  • NR, Bhanumurthy
  • Kumawat, Lokendra

Abstract

Though a large number of structural macroeconometric models have been estimated for India, the fact that all these are based on annual data limit their usefulness for short-term policy analysis, particularly in volatile periods of the type seen during last few quarters. Therefore the present paper builds up a short-term macroeconometric model for India using quarterly data. The model has reasonably good in-sample performance. One important feature of the model is use of quadratic relation between government expenditure and credit to private sector, which shows presence of both crowding in and crowding out effects, the latter dominating the former when expenditure is high enough. Some simulations are also carried out to analyse the impact of recent external shocks such as rise in global food and fuel prices and the global financial meltdown, on the Indian economy. The results show that the current slowdown in India’s growth predates the global price shock and the global financial crisis, and is more of a regular cyclical downturn. The global developments only further deepen the slowdown and prolong the recovery.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19776.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19776

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Keywords: Structural model; External Shocks; India;

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  1. David E. Rapach & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regression Models of Aggregate U.S. Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 238-274.
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Cited by:
  1. Mundle, Sudipto & Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Das, Surajit, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation with high growth: A policy simulation model for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2657-2668.
  2. Bathla, Seema, 2012. "Volatility in Agriculture Commodity Prices in India: Impact and Macroeconomic and Sector-Specific Policy Responses," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122543, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Bathla, Seema, 2011. "Resilience of Indian agriculture to external shocks: Analyzing through a structural econometric model," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 14, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  4. Inayat Ullah Mangla, 2011. "Reconstructing the Performance of Pakistan’s Political Economy: Another Paradigm," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 30-70, September.

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