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Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy

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Author Info

  • Ghate, Chetan

    ()

  • Pandey, Radhika

    ()

  • Patnaik, Ila

    ()
    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950 - 2009. We find that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India's liberalisation reforms in 1991. In particular, after the the mid 1990s, the properties of India's business cycle has moved closer in key respects to select advanced countries. This is consistent with India's structural transformation from a pre-dominantly agricultural and planned developing economy to a more mar- ket based industrial-income economy. We also identify in what respects the behaviour of the Indian business cycle is different from that of other advanced economies, and closer to that of other less developed economies. This is the first exercise of this kind to generate an exhaustive set of stylised facts for India using both annual and quarterly data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in its series Working Papers with number 11/88.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:11/88

Note: Working Paper 88, 2011
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Web page: http://www.nipfp.org.in

Related research

Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Real business cycles ; Emerging market DSGE models ; Volatility and growth;

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References

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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "A Floating versus Managed Exchange Rate Regime in a DSGE Model of India," NIPE Working Papers 31/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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  3. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Hilde Christiane BjÛrnland, 2000. "Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway - an international comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 369-392.
  5. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  6. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  7. Alessandra Iacobucci & Alain Noullez, 2005. "A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 75-102, February.
  8. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Scholarly Articles 12490636, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  10. Jayaram, Shruthi & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Working Papers 09/61, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  11. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2006. "Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development: Evidence for a Panel of Countries," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 49-80.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  13. Shah, Ajay & Patnaik, Ila, 2010. "Stabilising the Indian business cycle," Working Papers 10/67, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  14. Javier García-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," NBER Working Papers 12629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Calderon, Cesar & Fuentes, Rodrigo, 2010. "Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5343, The World Bank.
  16. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 55-78, January.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. On Powerful Macroeconomic Concepts: Consumption Smoothing
    by paragwaknis in Musings of the Sorts on 2013-03-29 01:04:36
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Cited by:
  1. Parag, Waknis, 2012. "Political economy of sub-national spending in India," MPRA Paper 36813, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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