An Indicator Approach to Business and Growth Rate Cycles: The Case of India
AbstractOver the last few decades, the Indian economy has experienced both classical business cycles and the cyclical fluctuations in its growth rate known as growth rate cycles. In the years since the liberalization of the economy began, these cycles have been driven more by endogenous factors than by exogenous shocks. From the point of view of both policy makers and business, therefore, it is important to find a way to predict Indian recessions and recoveries, along with slowdowns and speed-ups in growth. This paper adopts a classical leading indicator approach to the problem. In earlier work (Dua and Banerji, 1999), we used the classical NBER approach to determine the dates of Indian business cycles and growth rate cycles. These dates are used as the reference chronology against which to evaluate the performance of potential leading indicators for the Indian economy. The indicators selected are combined into a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycles upturns and downturns. Given the paucity of suitable data for the Indian economy, the construction of such a leading index constitutes a significant advance. It also confirms that that the durable sequences of leads and lags seen in free market economies are now also evident in the Indian case, permitting useful forecasts of cyclical turning points.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its journal Indian Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007
Phone: 91-11-2766-6533/34/35, 2766-6703/04/05
Web page: http://www.ierdse.org/
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
- Chetan Ghate & Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik, 2011.
"Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy,"
Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers
11-05, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
- Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
- Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pami Dua).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.