Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies
AbstractUsing the dating algorithm by Harding and Pagan (2002) on a quarterly database for 23 emerging market economies (EMEs) and 12 developed countries over the period 1980.Q1 - 2006.Q2, the authors proceed to characterize and compare the business cycle features of these two groups. They first find that recessions are deeper and more frequent among EMEs (especially, among LAC countries) and that expansions are more sizable and longer (especially, among East Asian countries). After this characterization, this paper explores the linkages between the cost of recessions (as measured by the average annual rate of output loss in the peak-to-trough phase of the cycle) and several country-specific factors. The main findings are: (a) adverse terms of trade shocks raises the cost of recessions in countries with a more open trade regime, deeper financial markets and, surprisingly, a more diversified output structure. (b) U.S. interest rate shocks seem to have a significant impact on the cost of recessions in East Asian countries. (c) Recessions tend to be deeper if they coincide witha sudden stop, but the effect tends to be mitigated in countries with deeper domestic credit markets. (d) Countries with stronger institutions tend to have less costly recessions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5343.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform;
Other versions of this item:
- CÃ©sar CalderÃ³n & Rodrigo Fuentes., 2011. "Characterizing the Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 371, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DEV-2010-07-03 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-07-03 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
- NEP-SEA-2010-07-03 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts,"
IMF Working Papers
99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002.
"Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004.
"Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend,"
04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank.
- Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
- Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008.
"Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Colombiana:Fundamentos Empíricos para la Construcción y Evaluación de un Modelo DSGE,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
004602, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, . "Hechos estilizados de la economía colombiana: fundamentos empíricos para la construcción y evaluación de un modelo DSGE," Borradores de Economia 509, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011.
"Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
[Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- PIROVANO, Mara, 2013.
"Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy,"
2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
- Piti Disyatat & Chayawadee Chai-anant, 2007. "Challenges to Managing Risk and Volatility in the Emerging Market Context," Working Papers 2007-01, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
- Leon du Toit, 2009. "Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 20/2009, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2011.
"Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
154, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & K. Alper & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers Series 237, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Pierre-Richard Agenor & Koray Alper & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers 1228, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Esteban PÃ©rez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2013. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_749, Levy Economics Institute, The.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Rethinking Inflation Targeting: A Perspective from the Developing World," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 185, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Chetan Ghate & Radhika Pandey & Ila Patnaik, 2011.
"Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy,"
Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers
11-05, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
- Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
- Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Pablo Mejía-Reyes & Jeanett Campos-Chávez, 2011. "Are the Mexican States and the United States Business Cycles Synchronized? Evidence from the Manufacturing Production," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 79-112, January-J.
- Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, . "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3911, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Stylized Facts of the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2011. "Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers Series 254, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.