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Zooming in: From Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution

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Author Info
César Calderón and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

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Abstract

In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty and inequality. We find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. Our test shows that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number 2007-03.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:2007-03

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  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Fear of Appreciation," Business School Working Papers fearapp, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18, pages 351-408, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kraay, Aart, 2006. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 198-227, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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