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Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: A Reassessment

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  • Eduardo A. Cavallo

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Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidencesuggesting that the net effect of trade openness on output volatility is stabilizing. The methodology employed seeks to correct for the likely endogeneity of trade in this setting using gravity estimates as instrumental variables. The results confirm that exposure to trade raises output volatility through the terms-of-trade channel, as previously documented in the literature, but also shows that this is counteracted by a quantitatively larger stabilizing effect. Additional evidence is presented showing that the latter effect comes (at least in part) through the financial channel. Splitting the sample into countries that are more exposed to capital flows and countries that are less exposed, the paper shows that the stabilizing effect of commercial trade predominates in the first sub-sample.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4518.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4518

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  1. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 8853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Koren, Miklós & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Ha Yan Lee & Luca Antonio Ricci & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "Once Again, is Openness Good for Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2006. "Trade, Gravity and Sudden Stops: On How Commercial Trade Can Increase the Stability of Capital Flows," Research Department Publications 4491, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  13. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  15. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinna & Hiro Ito, 2010. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," Trade Working Papers 21873, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. Calderon, Cesar & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2009. "Zooming in : from aggregate volatility to income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4895, The World Bank.
  3. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Aizenman, Joshua & Chen, Menzie & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3897k2ss, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  5. EDWARDS, Jeffrey, 2009. "Trading Partner Volatility And The Ability For A Country To Cope: A Panel Gmm Model, 1970-2005," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
  6. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2009. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt840728sc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
  9. Matteo Cacciatore, 2012. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Labor Market Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Parinduri, Rasyad, 2012. "Growth volatility and trade: evidence from the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal," MPRA Paper 39040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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