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Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor : analytical issues and cross-country evidence

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard

Abstract

The author studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. First, he summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. Second, he reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor. Third, the author emphasizes the role of the labor market. He develops an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. Fourth, he presents cross-country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. The author finds that output growth and real exchange rate depreciations tend to lower poverty, while illiteracy, income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase poverty. In addition, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric, and to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2788.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2788

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Related research

Keywords: Labor Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Services&Transfers to Poor; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Environmental Economics&Policies; Achieving Shared Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Inequality; Poverty Assessment;

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References

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  1. Suzanne Duryea & Miguel Székely, 1998. "Labor Markets in Latin America: A Supply-Side Story," Research Department Publications 4120, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Alejandro Gaviria, 2001. "Household Responses to Adverse Income Shocks in Latin America," IDB Publications 6488, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1999. "Macroeconomic adjustment with segmented labor markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 277-296, April.
  4. Gustavo Anríquez & Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 1998. "Poverty and Macroeconomic Policies: Chile 1987-1994," Documentos de Trabajo 27, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  5. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 1998. "Macro Policy and Employment Problems in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4116, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Theo S Eicher & Cecilia Garcia Penalosa, . "Inequality and Growth," Working Papers 0083, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "Poverty, Income Distribution, and Economic Policy in the Philippines," IMF Working Papers 98/20, International Monetary Fund.
  8. William T. Dickens & Kevin Lang, 1985. "A Test of Dual Labor Market Theory," NBER Working Papers 1314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ales Bulir, 1998. "Income Inequality," IMF Working Papers 98/7, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Quentin Wodon & Rodrigo Castro & Kihoon Lee, 2001. "Poverty in Latin America: Trends (1986-1998) and Determinants," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(114), pages 127-153.
  11. Gylfason, T., 1996. "Output Gains from Economic Stabilization," Papers 606, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  12. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  13. Amadeo, Edward Joaquim & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2000. "Macroeconomic Policy And Poverty In Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 373, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  14. Dorosh, Paul A. & Sahn, David E., 2000. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomic Adjustment on Poverty in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 753-776, November.
  15. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Suwa, Akiko, 1991. "Distributional Effects of Adjustment Policies: Simulations for Archetype Economies in Africa and Latin America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 5(2), pages 339-66, May.
  16. Breen, R. & Garcia-Penalosa, C., 1999. "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: an Empirical Investigation," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 99b11, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  17. Canagarajah, Sudharshan & Mazumdar, Dipak, 1997. "Employment, labor markets, and poverty in Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1845, The World Bank.
  18. Eduardo Lora & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "The Employment Problem in Latin America: Perceptions and Stylized Facts," IDB Publications 6437, Inter-American Development Bank.
  19. Bleaney, Michael F., 1996. "Macroeconomic stability, investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 461-477, March.
  20. Carmen Pagés-Serra & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "Ties That Bind: Employment Protection and Labor Market Outcomes in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4118, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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