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Zooming in : from aggregate volatility to income distribution

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Author Info
Calderon, Cesar
Yeyati, Eduardo Levy

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Abstract

In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The authors find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. The findings show that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4895.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4895

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Inequality;

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  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "Fear of Appreciation," Business School Working Papers fearapp, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18, pages 351-408, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Emanuele Baldacci & Gabriela Inchauste & Luiz de Mello, 2002. "Financial Crises, Poverty, and Income Distribution," IMF Working Papers 02/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2007. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: A Reassessment," RES Working Papers 4518, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Kraay, Aart, 2006. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 198-227, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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